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THE STRUCTURE OF MONETARY EQUILIBRIUM MODELS: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

The study compared the theories of the monetarist and keynesian school of thought with the

Nigerian economic policies regarding money supply and inflation over a period of thirty five

years (1981-2015). The motivation for this study was borne out of a contentious dispute that

there seem not to be any consensus as to which economic theory has been dominant in the

Nigerian economic landscape superintended by various governments over time. The hypotheses

were premised on the opposing beliefs of these schools of thought as to the effect of money

supply on prices. The methodology embarked on was regression analysis. The model of the study

was well fitted as the AIC, or Schwarz criterion, shows that the difference between the two is

very negligible, an indicator of a near perfect model convergence near zero. The smaller they

are the better the fit of your model is (from a statistical perspective) as they reflect a trade-off

between the lack of fit and the number of parameters in the model. The goodness of fit of the

model testing the effect of money supply on inflation indicates a significantly high variation of

99.3% and 99.2% of inflation by money supply by the R2 and adjusted R2. The ADF seen on

table 4.2.2 shows that at 1%, 5% and 10% critical values the values are more negative than ADF

test static. The conclusion of this study is to accept the alternate hypothesis which suggests that

money supply has a significant effect on inflation and to reject the conjecture in the null

hypothesis which said that money supply has no significant effect on inflation. It is the

recommendation of this study that monetary policy is better suited to stabilize the economy if it is

used to target inflation directly rather than used directly to stimulate the economy. Further

recommendations of study include that interest rate regime should be flexible enough to adapt to

market based realities. There should be a narrowing of the gap between the interbank rate and

the parallel market to avoid the attendant distortions in the foreign exchange market or in the

market’s ability to provide enabling environment for trading in foreign currency. The

government should find practical ways to increase money supply as a means of targeting

inflation given the recession in the last two quarters of 2016.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page- – – – – – – – – i

Approval page – – – – – – – -ii

Dedication – – – – – – – – -iii

Acknowledgement – – – – – – – -iv

Abstract – – – – – – – – – -v

Table of content – – – – – – – -vi

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – -1

1.0 Background of the study – – – – -1

1.1 Statement of the problem – – – – -5

1.2 Purpose of the study – – – – – -6

1.3 Significance of the study – – – – -8

1.4 Research questions – – – – – -9

1.5 Scope of the study – – – – – – -10

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW – – – – – – -11

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology – – – – – – -39

Design of study – – – – – – – -40

CHAPTER FOUR

Presentation, analysis and interpretation of data – -48

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary of findings – – – – – – -60

Conclusion – – – – – – – – -61

Recommendations – – – – – – – -62

Suggestions for further research – – – – -64

References – – – – – – – – -65

Appendix I – – – – — – – – -68

Questionnaire. – – – – – – – -69

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