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A SURVEY OF SURVIVAL PATTERNS OF SOME RECIDIVISTS IN NIGERIAN PRISONS
Abstract
Recidivism, one of the most fundamental concepts in criminal justice, refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime. It is measured by criminal acts that resulted in re-arrest, reconviction or return to prison with or without a new sentence during a threeyear period following the prisoner’s release. Recidivism has become a global phenomenon. Its high prevalence rate and associated menace to the Nigerian society in recent times provide a great motivation for this work.
As a result, this work considered the application of survival analysis to the rate of recidivism of prison inmates in Nigerian prisons. It also examined the factors influencing recidivism using Ado–Ekiti and Olokuta Prisons in Ekiti and Ondo states respectively.
Data of recidivists collected from Nigerian Prison Service in these two states between 2011 and 2016 were fitted using the Kaplan-Meier Procedure and the Cox’s Regression Model while the influence of some factors on recidivism was carried out.
Results of the Cox regression model and the Cox-Mantel log-rank tests at 0.05 significant level show that employment status is the only factor influencing the rate of recidivism and it was concluded that of the factors considered, a major cause of high prevalence rate of recidivism in Nigeria is unemployment.
Keywords: survival analysis, prison, inmates, recidivists, offence, Time to Event, Censoring, Survival function and Hazard function