EFFECT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

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EFFECT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON THE

ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

This research examined the effect of Trade Liberalization on economic growth of Nigeria for the period 1981-2016. The data collection was secondary and existing data extracted from the statistical bulletin of the Central bank of Nigeria 2016. Five specific objectives, research questions and hypothesis were simultaneously formulated. The major objective of this study is to analyze how trade Liberalization affects economic growth in Nigeria. The study applied E-view 7.0 version and the estimation technique applied are Ordinary least square (OLS), diagnostic test, serial correlation test, stability test and Granger causality test. The independent variable used for the study are Degree of Openness, Net Import, Net Export, Exchange Rate and Balance of Payment while the dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product(GDP).Based on time series data all variables considered are relevant indicators of economic growth. Result of the analysis shows that the whole independent variables have 94% positive impact to GDP in Nigeria, moreso (AdjstR2) is 0.926 which suggest that 93% of the independent variable could be explained by the changes in the dependent variable and the remaining 7% could not be explained due to some error in the financial system. The Durbin Watson test is 2.133 which revealed no presence of serial correlation and good for prediction. The p-value of the F-stat is 0.00<0.05 which suggest that the whole independent variables are statistically significant. We accept the alternative hypotheses HA and conclude that the whole independent variables are significant to GDP in Nigeria. Consequently, the study recommended that Government must continue to adopt appropriate policies to diversify the productive base of the economy in order to promote net export and build an efficient service infrastructure. Exchange rate liberalization is also critical in facilitating trade in any economy. The study contributed to knowledge by developing a model that can predict Trade Liberalization in Nigeria (GDP=f(DOP,NEXP,NIMP,EXCH,BOP).

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