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SHARE PRICE BEHAVIOURS IN NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE RANDOM WALK HYPOTHESIS
ABSTRACT
Several theories, representing professional schools of thought, have been developed to explain the stochastic processes underlying security price behaviours in Stock Markets. These schools differ in approach and are not agreed in their conclusions. Although no one of them has been accepted as conclusive, the random walk model represents profound Interest and impact among financial analysts. The model maintains that highly competitive and organized markets create prices which accurately reflect all current information. In effect, price changes will assimilate new Information and thus approximate a random walk. If this theory is valid, past prices provide no information useful in estimating future prices. The next price change is independent of all past moves. Acceptance of this model has been based on empirical evidence provided by studies of the industrialized markets, particularly those of the United States. Studies of non-U.s. markets present evidence that do not altogether refute or support the theory. The present study focused on share price behaviours in the Nigerian stock market. The purpose of the study is to test the simple random walk hypothesis that successive price changes are independent and to view the results of its application to the behaviours of ordinary share prices in the Nigerian Stock Market. The results obtained show that though these prices move according to some discernible patterns, there is small dependence in successive changes within the period covered by the study. It is concluded therefore, that the random walk model is probably a valid description of stock price behaviours in the Nigerian Stock Market.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page- – – – – – – – – i
Approval page – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – -iii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – -iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – -v
Table of content – – – – – – – -vi
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – -1
1.0 Background of the study – – – – -1
1.1 Statement of the problem – – – – -5
1.2 Purpose of the study – – – – – -6
1.3 Significance of the study – – – – -8
1.4 Research questions – – – – – -9
1.5 Scope of the study – – – – – – -10
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW – – – – – – -11
CHAPTER THREE
Research methodology – – – – – – -39
Design of study – – – – – – – -40
CHAPTER FOUR
Presentation, analysis and interpretation of data – -48
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary of findings – – – – – – -60
Conclusion – – – – – – – – -61
Recommendations – – – – – – – -62
Suggestions for further research – – – – -64
References – – – – – – – – -65
Appendix I – – – – — – – – -68
Questionnaire. – – – – – – – -69
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