STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA, FROM 2019-2021

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA, FROM 2019-2021

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged out of Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019. The pandemic, which rapidly spread to over 210 countries as of March 2020, continues to inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden in many parts of the world, including in Nigeria. As of September 30, 2020, it accounted for over 28.8 million confirmed cases and about 921,000 deaths globally [1–3]. There is currently no safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use against the pandemic in humans. Consequently, the control and mitigation efforts against the pandemic are focused on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social (physical)-distancing, community lockdown, contact tracing, quarantine of suspected cases, isolation of confirmed cases and the use of face masks in public [4–8]. Social-distancing (also referred to as physical-distancing) entails maintaining a physical distance of 2 metres (or 6 feet) from other humans in public gatherings. Community lockdown entails implementing the stay-at-home or stay-in-shelter strategy (so that people stay at, and work from, home), the closure of schools and non-essential businesses and services, avoiding large public or private gatherings etc.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa (with an estimated population of 200 million [9]), is one of the epicenters of COVID-19 in Africa. It reportedly recorded its first COVID-19 case on February 27, 2020 (when an Italian citizen, who works in Nigeria, was diagnosed with the disease upon returning back to Nigeria from a trip to Milan, Italy [10]). This was the very first reported case in sub-Saharan Africa [10]. Data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) show that, as of September 13, 2020, Nigeria has 56,117 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1078 cumulative deaths (see Figure 1 for a time series data on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria) [11]. Furthermore, a total of 440,248 samples were tested for COVID-19 as of September 13, 2020 [11]. The federal government of

Nigeria implemented a strict lockdown of three major centres in the country (namely, Lagos city, Ogun State and the Federal Capital Territory Abuja) on March 30, 2020, aimed at minimizing community transmission of COVID-19. During the imposed lockdown, only food stores and essential service providers were allowed to operate [12]. However, due to the increase in the cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases, the government extended the community lockdown to include the rest of the country on April 27, 2020. The government announced plans to begin easing restrictions in the country from May 4, 2020, by allowing offices, businesses, markets, and stores to resume operation with limited hours and staff capacity, but with compulsory wearing of face masks in public and checking of body temperatures [12, 13]. However, restrictions, which include an overnight curfew and a ban on nonessential interstate travel, are still in place [12,13]. A natural question to ask is when would it be safe to relax the lockdown measures to re-open the economy and the country? In other words, under what conditions can the lockdown measures be relaxed without risking the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 that may be as (or even more) devastating as the first? This is one of the main objectives of the current study. We seek to use mathematical modeling approaches and rigorous mathematical analyses, coupled with statistical data analytics, to achieve this and related objectives.

Mathematical models have, historically, been used to provide realistic insight into the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases, dating back to the pioneering works of Sir Ronald Ross and Kermack-McKendrick in the 1900s [14]. Numerous models have also been designed and used to understand the mechanisms for the spread, control and mitigation of COVID-19 in a community. Ferguson et al. [15] developed one of the very first models for COVID-19. Their agent-based model,which was used to assess the impact of NPIs on COVID-19 mortality, predicted an alarmingly-high projection for the cumulative mortality in the US (2.2 million deaths) and the UK (510,000 deaths) if no public health interventions are used (i.e., their worst-case scenario predictions for COVID-induced mortality for the US was in millions, while that of the UK was in hundreds of thousands). A recent study by Eikenberry et al. [4] used a new multi-group Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic model to assess the impact of mask usage in public in curtailing the spread of COVID-19 in the US. Their study shows that the use of face masks by members of the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. This study further shows that the community-wide benefits of face masks are likely to be greatest when they are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as social-distancing), and when face masks are adopted universally (i.e., throughout the nation) and compliance in their usage is high.

A detailed mathematical model for assessing the community-wide impact of NPIs on combating and mitigating the burden of COVID-19 was developed by Ngonghala et al. [5]. Their study showed that, while the early relaxation or lifting of social-distancing and community lockdown measures (and face mask usage in the public) is likely to lead to second wave, extended the duration of the social-distancing and lockdown measures (and face mask usage in public) can significantly reduce the COVID-induced mortality in the US in general, and the state of New York in particular. The potential for a COVID-19 outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise (which experienced a major COVID-19 outbreak during the months of January and February of 2020) was modeled by Mizumoto and Chowell [16]. Their study showed a high estimate of the reproduction of the model (making major outbreak inevitable), and that the reproduction number substantially decreases with increasing effectiveness of the quarantine and isolation measures implemented on the ship. Adegboye et al. [17] used a log-linear Poisson regression model to estimate the early transmissibility of the novel coronavirus in Nigeria. Their 45-day estimates showed that, although COVID-19 cases in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected, more testing needs to be done to stop local transmission. Musa et al. [18] estimated the growth rate and basic reproduction number of the novel coronavirus to show the potential of the virus to spread, and to reveal the importance of sustaining stringent health measures to control the disease in Africa.

Using a stochastic model, Hellewell et al. [19] showed that (for most instances) the spread of COVID-19 can be effectively contained in 3 months if contact-tracing and isolation are highly effective. Furthermore, using another stochastic model to study the COVID-19 trajectory in the Wuhan city of China from January to February, 2020, Kucharski et al. [20] showed that a reduction in COVID-19 transmission can be achieve when travel restrictions are implemented. Using a model for assessing the effect of mass influenza vaccination on the spread of COVID-19 and other influenza-like pathogens co-circulating during an influenza season, Li et al. [21] showed that increasing influenza vaccine uptake (or enhancing the public health interventions) would facilitate the management of outbreaks of respiratory pathogens circulating during the peak flu season.

Recently, Iboi et al. [6] developed a mathematical model to determine whether or not a hypothetical imperfect vaccine can lead to the elimination of COVID-19 in the United States. Their study showed that such elimination is feasible, using the hypothetical vaccine with assumed efficacy of 80%, if the vaccine coverage is high enough to achieve herd immunity. In particular, the vaccine coverage needed to achieve herd immunity in US is 90%, while the computed herd threshold for the states of New York and the state of Florida are 84% and 85%, respectively.

The current study is based on using a mathematical model to assess the impact of NPIs on the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. The model will be parametrized using available COVID-19 mortality data for Nigeria, the state of Lagos, Kano and the Federal Capital Territory Abuja to estimate important parameters related to the reduction in community contacts. The main objectives of the study include determining whether or not the current NPI-based control and mitigation measures in Nigeria would be adequate to lead to the effective control of the pandemic in Nigeria. Further, the impact of early relaxation or lifting of the current social-distancing and community lockdown measures will be assessed. In particular, the model will be used to determine when it would be safe to relax these measures without risking the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic.

1.2 Statement of the problem

There may have been previous researches in this subject. This work gives further explanations and analysis in statistical analysis of incidence of covid-19 pandemic in nigeria, from 2019-2021

1.3 Objectives of the study

1. To understand the impact of incidence of covid-19 pandemic in nigeria

2. To understand the relationship between incidence of covid-19 pandemic and public health development in nigeria

1.4 Research questions

1. What is the impact of incidence of covid-19 pandemic in nigeria

2. What is the relationship between incidence of covid-19 pandemic and public health development in nigeria

1.5 Research hypothesis

H0: There is no relationship between incidence of covid-19 pandemic and public health development in nigeria

H1: There is a relationship between incidence of covid-19 pandemic and public health development in nigeria

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