SYRIAN CRISIS SINCE 2011 CAUSE, COURSE AND CONSEQUENCES

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SYRIAN CRISIS SINCE 2011 CAUSE, COURSE AND CONSEQUENCES

ABSTRACT

This paper the causes, course and consequences of syrian crisis. The study covers six year period since 2011to 2016. A quasi-experimental design was adopted for the study of 450 respondents. The study use a simple percentage method to analysze the data collected through the instrumentn of questionnaire. The instrument was validated (reliability coefficient=0.56) and administered both as pre- and post- tests. The findings of the paper reveal that the crisis led to the displacement of persons from syria to other countries .

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Syrian uprising began in March 2011 with anti-government protests in provincial areas. The government of President Bashar al-Assad responded with a bloody crackdown on initially peaceful gatherings, along with piecemeal concessions that stopped short of genuine political reform. After almost a year and a half of unrest, the conflict between the regime and the opposition has escalated to a full-scale civil war. Army defectors formed armed groups that wage a guerrilla war on government forces. By mid-2012 the fighting has reached capital Damascus and commercial hub Aleppo, with growing numbers of senior army officers deserting Assad.

However, key army units remain loyal to the regime, and while Assad’s long-term survival chances don’t seem great, he is far from finished. A prolonged bloody civil war lies ahead, with possibly disastrous consequences for Syria’s multi-religious and multi-ethnic society.

The Syria crisis was declared a level-three (L3) humanitarian emergency in January 2013. A humanitarian appeal was launched in June 2013, the largest ever launched by the United Nations.1Although an L3 humanitarian emergency requires a mandatory inter-agency humanitarian evaluation, in the case of Syria, the Steering Group for Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluations concurred to undertake a different type of evaluative work, which would provide for an appropriate level of lesson learning and system-wide accountability to help guide the ongoing response to the Syria crisis.

In January 2014, the Steering Group for Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluations set up the Coordinated Accountability and Lessons Learning (CALL) initiative to support evaluations of the humanitarian response to the Syria crisis. The Inter-Agency Standing Committee’s (IASC) Transformative Agenda driving the humanitarian system’s initiatives for greater effectiveness and accountability underpins the Syria CALL. Accordingly, a major concern of CALL is the establishment of effective modalities for coordinating evaluation and lesson-learning activities across humanitarian actors and among relevant evaluation networks, such as the Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in Humanitarian Action (ALNAP), the United Nations Evaluation Group (UNEG) and the Evaluation Network of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Development Assistance Committee (OECD/DAC).

This report is the Common Context Analysis of the Syria crisis, and it is one of the three primary deliverables of CALL. The others are the ALNAP Evaluation Portal2and a Common Evaluation Framework. Together, these products will serve as an “evaluation starter pack” for IASC agencies to support their evaluation work.

This Common Context Analysis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the Syria crisis and the humanitarian impact in the region. Together with the Common Evaluation Framework, this Common Context Analysis will ensure a systematic and coherent approach to building evaluative evidence. This Common Context Analysis aims to offer a ready-to-use common understanding of the crisis, thus saving evaluation teams’ time and research, and avoiding unnecessary duplication.

The primary focus of this Common Context Analysis is the Syria crisis and its regional spillover. Cause of the outbreak of the Syria crisis, and it examines the condition of the Syrian State and civil society before March 2011.

A chemical attack outside Damascus on August 21 brought the US on the brink of a military intervention in Syria, but Barack Obama pulled back at the last moment after Russia offered to broker a deal under which Syria would hand over its stockpile of chemical weapons. Most observers interpreted this turn-about as a major diplomatic triumph for Russia, raising questions over Moscow’s influence in the wider Middle East. But the military balance on the ground remains unchanged, with the regime and the rebels locked in a slow-moving conflict using conventional weapons, inexorably reducing all of Syria into a pile of dust.

Diplomatic efforts at a peaceful resolution of the crisis led by Kofi Annan have failed decisively, leading to Annan’s resignation in August 2012. This is partly due to disagreements between Russia, Syria’s traditional ally, and the West. The US, long at odds with Syria over its links to Iran, has called on Assad to resign. Russia, which has substantial interests in Syria, has insisted that Syrians alone should decide the fate of their government.

In the absence of an international agreement on a common approach, Gulf Arab governments and Turkey are stepping up military and financial assistance for Syrian rebels. Meanwhile, Russia continues to back Assad’s regime with weapons and diplomatic support while Iran, Assad’s key regional ally, provides the regime with financial assistance.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Initially, lack of freedoms and economic woes fuelled resentment of the Syrian government, and public anger was inflamed by the harsh crackdown on protesters. Successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt energised and gave hope to Syrian pro-democracy activists. Many Islamist movements were also strongly opposed to the Assads’ rule.

The group has been expanding its territory since it first captured parts of Northern and Eastern Syria in 2013-2014. In 2015, ISIS militants clinged to key territories across Iraq and expanded their hold in Syria. ISIS has been continuously growing, feeding into the narrative of momentum and inevitability that then feeds recruitment to ISIS. ISIS is overthrowing modern state boundaries, resulting in massive ethno-sectarian killing and cleansing.

Already threatening to escalate violence between Middle Eastern states fighting proxy wars in Syria for several years, ISIS may have military operations that cascade into a broader regional conflict. ISIS is a direct threat to neighboring states in the Middle East and is broadcasting its intent to attack Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the West.

• Humanitarian Crisis:

– Human Rights Violations: A UN report found evidence that all parties to the conflict have committed war crimes – including murder, torture, rape and enforced disappearances. Rebels and governments forces have also both been accused of denying access to food, water, and health services along with sexual violence throughout the war.

– Refugee Crisis: Since fighting began, more than 7.5 millions Syrians have been internally displaced or approximately 1/3 of the country’s population. An additional 4.1 million Syrians have fled to neighboring countries, including Jordan and Turkey, to flee the violence since 2011.

• Assad’s Resolve: Since Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War, government forces have fought back from their lowest point in May 2015 and begun a series of successful o↵ensive operations around the rebel stronghold of Aleppo. The current o↵ensive, which began in October 2015, has been highly successful for the government due in large part to Russian air strikes. 2016 peace talks failed when

the Assad government announced they would wait. Many fear Russian intervention has bolstered the Syrian’s governments capabilities and willingness to fight on for years rather than submit to peace talks.

• Proxy War: The US has been covertly arming rebel groups in the countries for a few years as part of its “train and equip” program. In September 2015, Russia began air attacks to support the Syrian government. Russia’s entry into the Syrian conflict on Assad?s side as well as Iran?s has complicated the U.S.-led coalitions year-long bombing campaign against ISIS militant groups in Syria. The United

States fears Russian intervention in Syria will stoke the conflict, further radicalize opposition groups and make formation of a coalition government less likely.

• Transnational Terrorism: Since declaring its caliphate in June 2014, ISIS has conducted or inspired over 50 terrorist attacks in 18 countries, killing 1,100 people and injuring over 1,700. It is further thought to have attracted an unprecedented number of foreign fighters to travel to Syria stoking fears that these individuals could return to commit terrorist attacks at home. ISIS has called on sympathizers

in the West–homegrown, self-radicalized extremists inspired by IS propaganda–to commit violent acts at home. In November of 2015, ISIS claimed responsibility for attacking Paris, leaving 127 dead and 300 injured.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1. To examine the causes of syrians crisis.

2. To examine the series of crisis in syria since 2011.

3. To identify the consequences of syrians crisis.

4. To examine peace efforts of UN security council to stop syria crisis.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTION

1. What are the causes of syrians crisis?

2. Are there series of crisis in syria since 2011?

3. What are the consequences of syrians crisis?

4. Does UN security council make any effort to resolve Syria crisis.

1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

H0: Syrians crisis does not led to internally displace of persons.

H1: Syrians crisis led to internally displace of persons.

H0: UN security council did not make any effort to resolve Syria crisis.

H1: UN security council did make a lot of efforts to resolve Syria crisis.

1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The Context Analysis focuses on the period from March 2011 to April 2014, 2015 and 2016. A timeline of key events during the crisis is in annex. This study was carried out by two consultants—one in Beirut and one in Oxford—with a small research team at the Institute of Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict at the University of Oxford, UK. The research combined desk-based secondary sources, semi-structured interviews with Syrian and international humanitarian managers during visits to Syria, Beirut and Gaziantep, and interviews in London and remotely by Skype.

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